Wallonia 2024 : finally the real communism?
Drieu Godefridi
Foreword
I am a monster. On a Belgian scale, I am a monster. Although I was brought up in French, the roots of my family tree are all in deep Flanders. A French-speaking Fleming: a contradiction in terms for many Flemish nationalists; a kind of traitor in the eyes of some Walloons. As if language were everything! I am Drieu Godefridi. I have a deep respect for collective identities — and if I have to define myself and play along with them, I opt for the Flemish identity without hesitation. But I am not these collective identities. I claim the right and privilege to think for myself, critically, in the language of my choice, without adhering to any credo. It is the fruit of this free and personal — idiosyncratic! — view of Belgian federalism that you will find in these few prospective pages.
Introduction
Dear friend,
I will tell you a story. This prospective story is that of Belgian federalism. If, at times, I indulge in one or another ironic or sarcastic inflection, don’t hold it against me: it’s because it’s difficult to keep a straight face when confronted to the palinodies of Belgian federalism. This notwithstanding, keep in mind that the great Belgian institutional farce could end in a sinister way. For the Walloons are now voting massively and systematically for two parties on the extreme left of the political spectrum — ECOLO and the PTB, the latter claiming the ‘full’ Marxist heritage. [1]
These radical left and communitarian parties — ‘Melenchonian’ as they would be called in France — are in a position to form a large majority with the socialists, as early as 2024.
Then Wallonia, already in debt to the tune of 200% of its revenues (see below), would resolutely embark on a communist experiment in the strict sense.
Have you noticed that? Just 35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time, Belgium was a small unitary country whose two main cultural communities did not get along very well. It was the end of the sixties of the 20th century and the Belgians decided to create a federal system. The Walloons demanded economic autonomy, and the Regions were born. The Flemish demanded cultural autonomy and the Communities were born. Yes, you read that right: not content with establishing federalism, little Belgium immediately set up two kinds of federated entities, which are moreover superimposed. There is Brussels, a historically Flemish city in Flemish territory, but with a French-speaking majority, which the two communities are fighting over. Six reforms of the state followed one another, gradually stripping the federal government of its powers in favour of the regions and federated communities.
Since my intention is not to inflict on you a treatise on public law, let alone constitutional history, I will skip the details and suggest that you grasp the principle of this astonishing cheese without delay.
Mystique of Belgian Federalism
Six state reforms. It took the Belgians no less than six constitutional reforms to weave the dysfunctional institutional web pompously called ‘Belgian federalism’.
Federalization is generally done towards the centre (United States, Switzerland, Germany). The Belgians federalise towards the ends. It is not a question of entrusting powers to the central government; it has only ever been a question of peeling it back for the benefit of the ‘federated entities’, in a great procession of economic, historical and moral principles and justifications.
Six reforms like a peeled egg that were packed with declarations on the theme of autonomy. Autonomy! Auto-nomos, a beautiful and noble ideal that seems to animate the components of this counter-intuitive federalism. Flemish autonomy! Walloon autonomy! Brussels autonomy!
Let us concede the noble ideals that inspire Belgian federalism. The Flemish were sincerely eager to provide themselves with education and cultural management free from the airs of superiority and bullying of the French-speaking population. Certain Walloon political circles were undoubtedly genuinely convinced, at the end of the 1960s, that Wallonia would gain by controlling its economic destiny.
The initial ‘deal’ of Belgian federalism — the first of the six state reforms — consisted of an exchange of competences: the Flemish obtained cultural autonomy, and it was the Walloons who proclaimed their economic independence. The Grand Soir was announced, the reconciliation of the Walloon with his generic being (Karl Marx).
From this vibrant mix of principles and interests, the now famous (economic) Regions and (cultural) Communities arose: Belgium set out on the path of a never-ending federalism, like Gaston Lagaffe rowing towards the horizon.
This exchange of goodwill in the form of powers, which appeared to be as consensual as it was promising, did not stand up to the economic realities of Wallonia. It soon became apparent that, even if it was in control of its economic renaissance, Wallonia did not have the means to do so.
In order to pay the bills for its current expenses, Wallonia needed money. Money from the Flemish. Without Flemish money, Wallonia was (still is more than ever) unable to manage its lifestyle — public and private.
In many European countries, the problem is that people do not work long enough, because life expectancy has increased. In Wallonia, the problem is that a substantial fraction of the population that should be active, and is really only active in their leisure time, does not work at all. [2]
This is the only country in the world that offers citizens lifelong social benefits — without any time limit[3] ! — before they take a well-deserved retirement.
Every time the impudent Flemings dare to suggest that perhaps the outline of a possible time limit on these benefits might be conceivable, in the interests of the people concerned and of Wallonia, they are curtly rebuffed: Onbespreekbaar! The only Dutch word that the Walloon political elites really like, which means: Shut up, you nasty Fleming!
The definitive mechanism of Belgian federalism was crystallised: competences versus money. The Flemish always want more competences — ‘what we do ourselves, we do better’ — and the Walloons always more money — ‘because, well, because of the money. ‘[4]
Competence versus money: this has been the formula of Belgian federalism for half a century.
The reality of transfers
Six billion.
Belgium is a small country. The amount of transfers from Flanders to Wallonia must be seen in the light of this smallness.
Six billion. This is the amount of annual transfers from Flemish taxpayers to Walloon citizens.[5] Given that Wallonia’s tax revenue is only 15 billion, the Flemish transfers are equivalent to 40% of Wallonia’s own revenue. Astronomical and vital.
These transfers take different forms, direct and via social security mechanisms.
Let’s start with the ‘Sécu’. Wallonia, whose income level is now lower than that of Central European regions that were still communist in 1989, is afflicted by one of the lowest employment rates in Europe. Flemish taxpayers therefore finance the variously named social benefits for inactive Walloons of working age.
The regional dynamics of transfers are contested by French-speaking journalist-activists (this pleonasm):
(…) what are presented as interregional transfers are (sic), in fact, mostly interpersonal transfers. It is the working people who individually contribute the most, and the non-working people who personally receive the most. Aggregating this interpersonal solidarity by regions is interesting, but it could just as easily be done by provinces: we would then see that Walloon Brabant is a province that contributes proportionally more than Antwerp and East Flanders, and that West Flanders and Limburg are net beneficiaries of interprovincial transfers, which therefore come partly from Wallonia. ‘[6]
If Flanders contributes massively to Walloon allowances, it is childish to write that Flemish provinces benefit from transfers that come partly from Wallonia. This kind of debilitating rhetoric has kept the Walloons in suspense for half a century.
This is for ‘interpersonal’ transfers. What about direct transfers?
In its latest version — pending the inevitable update — the agreement between the Flemish and Walloons states that the direct transfers — 620 million per year — will end in 2024.
Don’t hold your breath: it won’t. This is due to a configuration of motives, each sufficient, whose combination is irresistible. Without these transfers, the Walloon bankruptcy would be immediate (in the literal, not metaphorical sense). Moreover, Flanders has no interest in seeing Wallonia, its neighbour and client, collapse overnight. Last but not least, Flanders is still asking for new competences to complete its autonomy. If Wallonia has no money, no oil and not many ideas, it can ‘negotiate’ a new transfer of powers from the federal state to the federated entities. This will inevitably happen because the only alternative to this new transfer would be for Wallonia to opt for reform of its own accord. For the reasons that we will examine, this scenario is hardly likely.
For thirty years, French commentators have been competing in hyperbole when it comes to predicting the end, always ‘imminent’, of Belgium.[7] However, the logic of Belgian federalism does not seem to have been exhausted, but rather accelerated. Let us argue that, far from being extinguished, it is being exacerbated. Wallonia needs more and more money, and the Flemish hunger for competences is growing. More! More! More! Both sides of the ‘linguistic border’ are crying out for more.
Belgian federalism, a tragedy in six acts
From a strict budgetary and fiscal point of view, Belgian federalism has created a plethora of federated entities around the central state which share the competences of the large Belgian cake.
Of course, this management of competences by political communities proud of their autonomy could not be conceived without perfect fiscal autonomy. These entities were therefore given the capacity to contract public loans[8] — without any limitation in nature, amount or percentage (apart from the Maastricht criteria which everyone now describes as ‘theoretical’).
Federal tragedy! It turned out during the day that the newly created entities were unable to meet their competences and commitments out of their own resources: with a heavy heart, they had to go into debt.
Debilitating effect of federalism on Wallonia
No one will reproach the Walloon government for having loosened the purse strings (…).[9]
The French-language press in 2022
When, in 1970, the Walloons mourned the disappearance of their industry, they had to be taken seriously. All that remained of a brilliant industrial past was ruin, wasteland and dust. The Germans of the Ruhrgebiet were able to highlight their glorious industrial past (notably in Dortmund) and to renew it; the Walloons achieved neither. The Walloon socialists demanded ‘accompanying measures’ to facilitate ‘economic reconversion’. Id est, Flemish money.
When these same Walloons, half a century later, say the same thing — down to the last word — they are as credible as 21st century Athenians who blame their budgetary difficulties on the Peloponnesian War.[10]
In an ultra-taxed country, when the coffers are empty, the leaders have no other solution than to cut spending, either spontaneously or under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The first step is to reduce the ‘buffer’ of public jobs, by activating the working age population as much as possible. Reduce the salaries of civil servants and their numbers. Expenditure is being reduced, because no direct increase in revenue can be expected: the economic fabric must be given time to regenerate.
Nothing like this has ever happened in Wallonia. Indeed, since 1970 Wallonia has had its own little ‘home’ International Monetary Fund (IMF): Flanders. Flanders does not grant Wallonia loans, but outright donations. Without any conditions being attached to these donations.[11] Divine providence!
Faced with the slippage of the debt, the Walloon politician knows that he is never alone. Autonomy! Autonomy! Beautiful Walloon autonomy, I write your name! But the ink is Flemish. Jeff van Antwerpen is there, just over the border, who will come to the rescue of our little Walon when he has, once again, emptied his cassette.
A normal State finances itself in two ways: by taxes and by debt. For half a century, Wallonia has been financed by taxes, by debt, and by the Fleming. Precious Flemings! Like the guest who never leaves the dinner and banquet table without paying the bill. Oh, of course, we don’t like him too much, Jeff, the generous obliged guest. He talks strangely. This ‘Flamin’ tends to give lessons! Moral lessons, I ask you! So we put him at the end of the table; we laugh under our breath at his ridiculous accent; we exchange knowing looks when he speaks. But we invite him anyway, because in the end it’s always Jeff, good old Jeff van de polders, who pays the bill. Patron! Get out the armagnac! (frowns the Flamin)
It is said that under the desk of the president of the Walloon Parliament there is a small red box, similar to that of a fire alarm: ‘Break here in case of a budget deficit’. The protective glass on this direct line to Antwerp has not been replaced since 1970.
A concrete example: education
Education, co-managed in principle by the Walloons and the French-speaking inhabitants of Brussels, in reality by the Walloon socialist unions, is in ruins; as a result. The perfect incarnation of the Walloon reality, causes and consequences.
It is rarely said, but as a percentage of GDP, the Walloons (and French-speaking Brussels) spend more on education than the Flemish. This has been the case since education became a competence of the Communautés (and no longer a central, federal competence). This was highlighted in this interesting study by the University of Namur:
the share of public expenditure on education in GDP in the French Community, at just over 6.7% (compared to less than 6.2% in Flanders), is higher than in all industrialised countries except Denmark, Iceland and Norway’.[12]
Poor Wallonia invests more in its education than rich Flanders: proof of its intelligence? Of its futuristic tropism? Bravo !
Ouch. The international performance rankings (PISA) show that Walloon (French-speaking) education is among the poorest in the OECD — while Flemish education remains above average. In concrete terms, Flemish children know how to write better and count much better — incorrigible! — than Walloon children. Costly and remarkably inefficient Walloon education.
Why? Because the Walloons do not invest in their education, but rather in the ‘acquired rights’ of teachers. You only have to look at the school buildings, which would be considered unhealthy in any Scandinavian country, Germany or the Netherlands, to be convinced (No, not there! The roof is threatening to collapse!). Even the remuneration of Walloon teachers, in absolute amounts (regardless of the number of hours worked) is not exorbitant. The Walloons bleed to ensure the ‘social benefits’ of their teachers. In terms of hours/weeks and especially in terms of years,[13] no OECD country allows its teachers to work as little as in Wallonia.[14] Fifty-five years (55) is the age at which these teachers are eligible, if they so wish, to retire, at the end of a scheme described by the authorities as ‘preferential’.[15] This is the law, dura lex sed lex of the Walloon socialist unions, which block everything — including roads[16] ! — whenever a politician considers reconsidering any of these ‘social advantages’.
This makes for a remarkably lose-lose-lose system, the cube of the loose, like a work of art, a Mozartian symphony of socialism in action. Losing for the children, losing for the teachers, losing for Wallonia.
And intangible like Planck’s constant. Walloon socialism is a rock, or rather a course, always the same: the North!
Paradox of Walloon socialism
Fifty years that the Socialist Party — socialism in its various political forms — has dominated Walloon political, cultural, media, moral, scientific, economic, pedagogical, metaphysical, ontological and cosmic (Redu) life. This is in the name of a kind of moral primacy that everyone accepts, including the Flemish. We do grumble from time to time. But, Jeff, you don’t want to deprive people of their food, starve them, throw them out into the street? Aren’t you human? You fascist! There are as many variations on this theme in the Walloon spirit as there are declensions in the German language.
The paradox of Walloon socialism is its cultural success.
Let me explain.
Since 1970, socialists of all parties have been teaching Walloons six biblical revelations:
1/ Public, good; private, dirty. According to this founding truth of Walloon socialism, market employment is at most a necessary and transitory evil, pending the advent of a fully non-market egalitarian society;
2/ The reconversion of Wallonia’s industrial past is a titanic undertaking, without precedent in cosmic history, from Hercules to the present day;
3/ The Walloon political spectrum is divided between the noble and good Left and the extreme right of Adolf Hitler. According to this theory, a centre-right party is a contradiction in terms, a sham, a ripe fruit that will inevitably fall into the camp of the Left or to the right of Mein Kampf;
4/ The Walloon economic renaissance is simply a question of time, ‘Be patient! All the elements of the Walloon resurgence are in place, all that remains is to harvest the sumptuous golden wheat that is already on the horizon’;
5/ Sobriety is true wealth;
Last but not least:
6/ ‘It’s not your fault. Everything bad that happens to us is the fault of the Flemings and globalisation.’
To help the Walloon people to learn these Nobel Prize-winning truths, the socialist elites have provided themselves with two unstoppable tools: the public service and education.
With an annual public budget of 300 million euros, the French-speaking Belgian Radio and Television (RTBF) is responsible for educating the Walloon people about the scientific nature of the Six Truths, programme after programme, flash news after flash news, investigation after investigation, series after series.[17] As if that were not enough, the Walloon and Brussels French-speaking public authorities are still responsible for directly subsidising the written press, with millions of euros. Probably to stimulate its ardour to oppose public policies? On 19 May 2022 (2022!), the first French-language daily summarised the Walloon budgetary reality in these terms: ‘No one will reproach the Walloon government for having loosened the purse strings (…).[18] Nobody! Fifty years of Walloon journalism in this sentence.
Eighty percent of teachers vote for the left and the far left. Is this a problem? As a teacher ‘in charge of the training course on neutrality for future teachers in upper secondary education’ (sic) was asked, here is his answer: no, absolutely no problem. ‘A teacher can have clear political commitments. However, it is expected that when dealing with political issues, he or she should deal with all views without directing the debate towards the one he or she feels most strongly about. In other words, one can be a teacher and at the same time a Marxist revolutionary.’[19] History shows that ‘Marxist revolutionaries’ are religiously careful to remain neutral in all matters.
RTBF + politicisation of education: how could a Walloon head escape the scythe of cultural socialism?
The paradox? Well, would you believe it? This tireless media-educational ploughing of the Walloon Masses has finally borne fruit.
With the material of a politically pluralist region, the Walloon socialists have fashioned a lunar monolith that is shared by the Left and the Far Left.
For educated citizens prefer the original to the copy. The socialists were soon overtaken on the left by ECOLO, the most radical environmentalist party in Europe — along with Die Grünen in Germany — which took a significant proportion of their voters. As if that were not enough, the PTB, a self-proclaimed communist party, emerged and set out to push the Socialist Party below 20%.
In short, if the Left embodies the Good — message received — then we do not see why the Walloons would not vote more and more to the left. This is a further validation of the theory of the communist Gramsci: revolution can only be prepared effectively by flattering souls and consciences.
The paradox of cultural socialism is that it was so successful that it threw the Walloons into the arms of revolutionary communists.
Will Wallonia ward off the spectre of communism? I don’t know, dear friend. What I do know is that the answer to this question will resound in the near future.
But you might ask: what is the opposition doing?
Relevant questioning.
In the land of no opposition
In addition to the side-effects of federalism specific to Wallonia, there is another, which concerns the entire Belgian construction.
Although the Walloon taxpayer — yes, there is such a thing, let’s stop caricatures! — subsidises its university education massively, there is hardly anyone there to take an interest in one of the main and most astonishing characteristics of the Belgian federal system: the neutralisation of the parliamentary opposition.
Let’s take an example: the coronavirus crisis.
I wrote a summary of the management of the first part of this crisis by the public authorities for an influential American website, the Gatestone Institute, to which you may wish to refer.[20] The Belgian management was not only calamitous: Belgium will have been, for one year, the worst country in the world in terms of coronavirus mortality. Belgium, #1! The federal government of the time accused itself of having somehow falsified its own mortality statistics — you’d think they were dreaming! — the figures spoke for themselves and were never corrected.
In any ‘normal’ country, such carnage — already! — would have led to a flurry of parliamentary questions, a political crisis, a series of resignations, solemn ‘I am retiring from politics for good’. Nothing of the sort happened in Belgium. In fact, nothing at all happened in Belgium: not a single resignation, not a press campaign on the subject, not a gloomy Giscardian ‘Goodbye’. A political and media ‘nothing’ of near-zero perfection as a mathematical object.
How to explain this nothingness, this anomaly, this formidable impunity? We are talking about deaths. People dying in series, sometimes in atrocious conditions, especially in old people’s homes. Is Belgium so corrupt? Are the citizens too stupid to understand? Is the press somehow anaesthetised?
Let us rather look for the explanation in the mysteries of the Belgian constitutional system.
An ‘improved’ proportional system
The Belgian electoral system is strictly proportional (D’Hondt system), with a representation threshold of 5%.
The proportionality of the Belgian electoral system results in a profusion of parties and particles. This is also the case in Italy and Israel, for example. Belgium — whose modest territorial and demographic size must be constantly reminded — has doubled everything.
There is not one liberal party in the federal parliament, but two: the French-speaking and the Flemish. It is not the Socialist Party that speaks in the chamber: it is the French-speaking Socialist Party, or its Flemish counterpart Vooruit. There is not one ‘Christian’, ‘humanist’ or ‘committed’ party — it is not clear any more — but two.
Please note, dear European friend, that this distinction is not artificial or confined to matters of language: in each case, we are talking about two distinct parties, in law as in politics, programme and parliamentary fraction, and competing with each other before the electorate (in Brussels and in the municipalities bordering the capital).
This makes for a Parliament that is fragmented like a Venetian floor.
Parliamentary majorities in conflict
When elections are held, we must try to build parliamentary majorities. This is the case at the federal level and at the level of the federated entities. There is no obligation — this is the principle of federalism — to have congruent majorities between the different levels of power.
It is, therefore, possible, and this will most often be the case, to weave a right-wing majority in Flanders and a left-wing majority in Wallonia, with a mix in Brussels, and a short federal majority that will lean one way (Flemish, right-wing) or the other (Walloon, left-wing).
Like Jackson Pollock splashes.
Emulsion of skills on a bed of contradictions
In addition to this parliamentary fragmentation — parties and majorities — there is also the fragmentation of competences. In accordance with the principle of competences for money, according to which the Walloons give up as few competences as possible — they have to think about the future — in exchange for as much Flemish money as possible, Belgian federalism is not entirely Cartesian in its distribution of tasks.
It is not unusual for a competence — health, for example — to be shared — pulverised — between the federal State and the Regions, or between the federal State and the Communities, when it is not between the State, the Regions, the Communities and the Brussels Community Commissions.
Mechanical result of the above
This dismemberment of competences, when added to the fragmentation of the parties, consubstantial to the proportional system, aggravated by the linguistic splintering, leads to a consequence so discreet that no one ever worries about it: the absence of opposition.
A concrete example: health
Let us return to the COVID crisis. In order to deal with it, knowing that health and most of the sectors concerned are fragmented between the different levels of power, the Belgian governments set about establishing an ad hoc body, called CODECO, which has de facto, if not de jure, decision-making powers. The CODECO is composed of representatives of the federal state and the federated entities:
“The Consultation Committee is composed of 12 representatives of the different governments of the country (the federal government and the regional and community governments), with a double parity: linguistic parity (6 French-speaking members and 6 Dutch-speaking members) and parity between members designated by the federal authority and members designated by the federated entities (6 members in total on both sides). “[21]
Given that all parties, with the exception of the extremes, are associated with the exercise of power in at least one of the Belgian governments, this mechanically leads to the fact that CODECO’s decisions are not subject to any serious, organised opposition, in the sense of the parliamentary tradition, in any of the Belgian parliaments. The parties in opposition at federal level are in the Flemish majority; the parties that are not in power either at federal level or in Wallonia are in power in Brussels, etc.
How could the Flemish right contest the decisions of CODECO — cumbersome, derogatory to ordinary law, terribly trying for the population — when the Flemish right-wing Prime Minister sits on CODECO? Can we imagine the Walloon socialist Prime Minister challenging CODECO, even though he is not a member? Will the Brussels majority, which sits on the aforementioned CODECO, oppose its own decisions? Will the federal Prime Minister go to the press to shout about the decisions of CODECO, which he chairs?
Belgium has succeeded in multiplying parliaments as Jesus multiplied loaves of bread, while neutralising the mechanism that is the raison d’être of a parliamentary system: the opposition.
How can one oppose power when one is associated with its exercise?
Let us now try to put a figure on the concrete result — the only one that counts — of this rococo federalism in Wallonia.
From 200% to 400%?
“The Walloon debt is stopped, and has even decreased”.[22]
The French-language press, 2022[23]
There is beauty in arithmetic. While the dominant way of thinking presents arithmetic as mediocre, vulgar, ‘inhuman’, this return to reality through numbers is not without aesthetic appeal. A synthetic and condensed format that often tells us more about reality than cascades of words.
For budgetary arithmetic designates precisely everything but abstract numbers, like a hideous layer that would disfigure the beautiful face of reality.
Budget arithmetic is a compendium of humanity.
200%. This is the debt, and the real balance sheet, of the Walloon Region after half a century of federalism.[24]
200% of public debt compared to the revenues of the Walloon political community. This means that the Walloon Region’s public debt is equal to its entire annual revenue, multiplied by two.
In other words, it would be necessary to enslave the entire Walloon population for years to painfully achieve… nothing. The budgetary zero.
This, of course, will not happen. Indeed, the socialised Walloons prefer to enslave future generations. Because public debt is never just a deferred tax. Public debt is a pure tax on the future.
The democratic weakness is structural. Indeed, the citizens on whom these drafts are drawn have no say: they are barely born, most of them not yet born. These ‘drafts’ do not vote. The Walloon voters have the choice between financing their lifestyle by themselves (taxes) or by others who have nothing to say (debt). In Wallonia, the choice is clear: pay the Fleming, and the Walloon of the future.
200%.
This implies that the exorbitant tax burden on Walloons — and on Flemings, who have been forced to contribute to the Walloon budget for half a century — tax on labour, tax on capital, tax on consumption, local taxes, tax on rubbish collection, tax on energy bills to finance intermittent energy, etc., is used in part to pay the interest on a debt that is constantly growing (600 million in interest in 2022[25] ).
When a Flemish politician points out that Wallonia is in a situation comparable to Greece before the IMF, the Walloon Budget Minister retorts: ‘This comparison with Greece is meaningless. But if we don’t do anything, we risk getting there.! [26] Thus, the comparison is not so far-fetched?
What we see, and what we do not see (Frédéric Bastiat)
While the Flemish exercise all their competences with a single government and parliament, the ‘rich’ French-speaking Walloons and Bruxellois engendered an institutional hydra to match their ambitions: the Walloon Region and the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.
As a political entity in its own right, the Wallonia-Brussels Federation is responsible for managing the education of French speakers and the glorious culture of French speakers. However, would you believe it, the revenue of the Wallonia-Brussels Federation does not cover its expenditure. So much so that its annual deficit is of the order of a billion euros, and its accumulated debt, already 10 billion, is scheduled to rise to 14 billion by 2025.[27]
However, the Wallonia-Brussels Federation has no fiscal power of its own (it is financed exclusively by grants from other political authorities). Its natural guarantor is none other than — as its name indicates — the Walloon Region. Consequently, the debt of the Wallonia-Brussels Federation is mainly a debt of the Walloon Region.
14 billion in 2025 + 45 billion for the Walloon Region (estimate) = 59 billion, i.e.. 400% of the Walloon revenue in 2022.
‘And now?’ (Gilbert Bécaud)
The temptation of communism
Despite its 45367890ème recovery plan[28] aimed at dognat y peregnat[29] Flanders, Wallonia has not recovered. In fact, it is bending over, leaning, considering with attention, almost greed, a new alternative, the ultimate solution, finally, to all its problems: Communism!
Fascinating Walloon electoral landscape! The political map of Wallonia is now divided between the communists (20%), the socialists (20%) and the ecologists (15–20%). That is to say a comfortable majority, which will allow Wallonia — just like fifty years ago! — to take its economic future in hand!
There are some residual problems to be solved. The openly communist party in question — the PTB — is unabashedly Marxist and claims the wondrous Marxian heritage ‘in its entirety’[30] . Consequently, the PTB makes its participation in the Walloon government conditional on the exit from the European treaties.
Wallonia is not a party to the founding treaties of the European Union. Only Belgium is. Therefore, taking Wallonia out of the European treaties presupposes that Belgium leaves the European treaties — unthinkable for the Flemish majority.
From then on, there is only one alternative with two branches: either the PTB renounces revolutionary Marxism — hardly reconcilable indeed with the European treaties — or Wallonia proclaims, Taratatam! Its independence! It is a Léon Zitrone who would have been needed to describe the popular jubilation: ‘Tides of people, decked out in yellow and red, are climbing towards the capital, Namur! Children are brandished like flags! Impossible to remain indifferent! Roosters crowing, a hope rises! LONG LIVE FREE WALLONIA!
An independent Wallonia would leave the EU and the euro, and therefore the European treaties, by the same token. Thus the PTB would obtain satisfaction. It would also, within the hour, secure the bankruptcy of Wallonia, which would have to negotiate the refinancing of its loans on the markets without its own currency — an improvised Walloonecu? — burdened with a singular absence of ‘collateral’ beyond the Coo cascades.
It is always necessary for vulgar arithmetical realities to break the mood! Arithmetic, a Flemish science? Let’s get out of arithmetic! Let’s dare to be Wallometric, when — + — = +!
Scenarios
What will not happen
Wallonia will not reform itself peacefully and smoothly through the classic electoral and parliamentary channels. We must abandon this illusion, which prevents us from thinking about the future. [31]
For fifty years, Wallonia has taken control of its destiny. All that remains is debt and words.
It is not a question of making a moral accusation, simply of noting the institutional and ‘systemic’ impasse. Nor is it a question of maintaining that Wallonia will not be reformed — the reform will come from outside — only of noting that if Wallonia possessed the resources to amend itself, the elections organised many times since 1970 offered it ten times the opportunity.
What may happen
For the reasons given, a communist episode in Wallonia can no longer be excluded. The Walloon parties of the left and extreme left are a majority. There is no sign of a reversal of this trend, which is heavily supported by the media, culture and education.
The establishment of communism in Wallonia — ‘the gradual reduction of the market sector in favour of the ‘non-market’ in the words of the president of the Walloon socialist party[32] — implies two developments.
First of all, as has been pointed out, the exit from the European treaties, and therefore the independence of Wallonia. This necessity is the main obstacle to the establishment of an eco-communist republic in Wallonia. For the idea of an economically independent Wallonia is so laughable, and so contrary to its possibilities, that one cannot formulate the project without smiling.
Secondly, the establishment of communism in Wallonia implies measures of suppression and seizure of private property. This, for ideological reasons — since the Manifesto of Marx and Engels, the suppression of private property is always and everywhere the first demand of the communists — but above all for simple arithmetical necessity.
Wallonia is penniless. If it were to declare its independence/establish a form of communism, its access to capital would be reduced to very few cents.
From then on, if only to give itself some breathing space — to pay the salaries of civil servants and affiliates for a few months — the eco-communist majority in Wallonia will have no other recourse than to seize all or part of private property.
Such seizures can be carried out in two ways: by brute force, in the manner of the historical communists and their inspirers, the revolutionaries of 1789 and the Terror. One takes and, if necessary, kills. Or by a method of bounty more compatible with the Walloon spirit, which is the one recommended by Thomas Piketty: by an expropriation tax. The result, of course, is the same. When the tax on real estate, for example, is exorbitant, it only takes a few years to force the owner to sell — i.e. to abandon his property to the public authorities.
It seems radical, unthinkable? We will have to get used to the unthinkable. For this ‘unthinkable’ is the programme of the Walloon Communist Party, to which the socialists and ecologists are rushing.
Communism is indeed radical. Its implementation has never, anywhere, been without violence, murder and plunder. In a democracy, you get what you vote for. The Walloons are now clearly tempted by the communist adventure. This is a simple fact, an observation, a factual judgement, not an opinion.
Clearly desired by the voters, the communist episode is gradually becoming a democratic requirement. Its possibility cannot be excluded by any rational mind respectful of democratic facts and realities.
What is likely to happen
A country that is unable to balance its public finances is a country that is abandoning itself.
Pierre Mendès France
Unable to reform, Wallonia is now at the mercy of a rise in interest rates, which will hasten its demise.
The inaugural act will probably be a downgrading of the financial credibility of the Walloon Region by the Moody’s agency, for which this agency will be lambasted by the omniscient Walloon Left. Since ancient times, the weak always attack the messenger of dark omens.
This wreckage, as has been said, will consist of the inability to pay citizens who depend on a public salary or allowance — citizens who are in the majority in Wallonia.
If Wallonia is unable to meet its obligations and commitments, its salvation can only lie in outside help.
This aid, according to current data, will come from Flanders, France or the IMF.
Another buyer may emerge. Whoever it may be — foreign state, capital conglomerates, … — let us not fool ourselves about the nature of the operation, which will be adorned with high principles, but will nevertheless remain a simple takeover.
The purchase of assets from a bankruptcy.
Conclusion — Wallonia 2024 : finally the real communism?
Flemish federalism is a proven success in almost all areas. Flanders has never been so prosperous. Ghent, Bruges and Leuven are at the height of their art of living, among the most beautiful, active and creative cities in Northern Europe. Antwerp is reviving its glorious past as one of the world’s largest ports. [33]
Walloon federalism is just as glaring, but of failure, complaints, resentment and misery. Yet, for half a century, it is Flanders that has massively financed Wallonia, not the other way round! How can this apparent paradox be explained? How can we explain that the region that receives billion after billion after billion — from Flanders, but also from Europe! — is doing worse and worse, while the region that pays and receives nothing is doing well?
What if the explanation lay in the very principle of this financing — its half-century-old permanence? What if it was deeply unhealthy, deleterious, and anaesthetising that, beyond legitimate but occasional solidarity, a region should become totally dependent on another region? Six billion per year! The equivalent of 40% of Wallonia’s own revenue! Every year! So much for the much celebrated autonomy of Wallonia, the first principle and claim of federalism!
In spite of this bucket of money, this constant perfusion of the size of an aorta, Wallonia keeps on increasing its deficit and, above all, it fails to implement any serious structural reform. Why should it reform when it does not fully assume the consequences of any of its policies? How would Walloons be inclined to take their responsibilities, and give their vote to parties that invite them to do so, when their region is financially irresponsible? Flemish transfers have never been the solution to Wallonia’s problem. Flemish transfers are Wallonia’s problem.
After half a century of federalism, Wallonia is littered with urban cankers, industrial wastelands and some of the dirtiest and most criminogenic cities in Europe. Yet Wallonia is not without its assets. There is great potential in this region which — cruel memory! — was a world economic leader.
For fifty years Wallonia and the Walloons have been living beyond their means. Since the media, culture and education having convinced them that the problem is not that they are given money, but that they are not given enough, the Walloons are preparing to launch the first communist regime in Western Europe since 1945.
Indeed, the left (PS) and the extreme left (ECOLO, PTB) are in a majority position and keep on reaffirming their fierce will to preside over Wallonia’s destiny, perhaps as early as 2024.
What will result from this experience, for Wallonia, for Belgium and for Europe, no one can say in advance. But the history of communism already reveals the ingredients of carnage: violence — did Marx not celebrate the Volksrache, or homicidal popular fury? — theft, plunder, confiscation. Misery — sorry, sobriety.
Believing that he was giving life to federalism, the Belgian Dr. Frankenstein was astonished to discover that he had created communism!
Annex. Belgian federalism, an export product?
When regions are in conflict, at war, or on the verge of becoming so, the Walloon political elites rush to announce the Good News, i.e. the solution that makes sense: Belgian federalism! You have to understand them. For them, Belgian federalism is the martingale, the jackpot that never ends, nine, nine, nine at baccarat, a cornucopia of a mythological calibre. Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Belgian federalism! Nagorno-Karabakh? Belgian federalism! The war in Ukraine? But what are you waiting for to introduce Belgian federalism, you fools!
Inexplicably, no one anywhere has ever followed this fine advice. Belgian federalism remains hopelessly Belgian. Maybe because nobody wants to play the Flemish? The Fleming is the anti-bank of the casino: in the casino the bank always wins in the end.
I can’t wait for humanity to be contacted by an alien civilization. We already have the solution to join forces. Spreekt u Nederlands ?
[1] Pol-pot, Mao Tse-tung, Stalin: https://www.levif.be/belgique/corse-le-petit-livre-rouge-du-ptb/
[2] Employment: “Wallonia reproduces generations of structural unemployed”, RTBF, https://www.rtbf.be/article/emploi-la-wallonie-reproduit-des-generations-de-chomeurs-structurels-10594861
[3] There is no time limit on unemployment benefits’ says the website that calls for ‘Living in Belgium’ (sic): https://www.vivreenbelgique.be/5-la-protection-sociale/les-allocations-de-chomage
[4] Thierry Lhermitte, Les Bronzés font du ski.
[5] https://www.lesoir.be/393568/article/2021-09-07/transferts-nord-sud-six-milliards-de-la-flandre-vers-la-wallonie-mais-le-montant
[6] https://www.levif.be/belgique/fact-check-non-la-flandre-nest-pas-aussi-lesee-quelle-laffirme-concernant-les-transferts-nord-sud/
[7] La Belgique : un État en voie de disparition’, Le Figaro, 2008 (already!), https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2008/05/23/01003-20080523ARTFIG00003-belgiqueun-etat-en-voie-de-disparition.php
[8] Fiscal autonomy of the Regions in Belgium’, KU Leuven, https://feb.kuleuven.be/public/u0019547/AD/Papers/2009%20Decoster,%20Valenduc%20and%20Verdonck.pdf
[9] Le Soir, Belgium’s leading French-language daily newspaper, 19 May 2022.
[10] 5th century BC.
[11] IMF loans to the financially and fiscally troubled country are subject to stringent conditions.
[12] https://www.unamur.be/eco/economie/cerpe/cahiers/cahiers/cahier73
[13] https://www.lalibre.be/debats/ripostes/2014/10/14/intenables-et-injustifies-les-avantages-de-fin-de-carriere-des-enseignants-BHHQNTAQ6FHWLL76H2TKZNENDQ/
[14] Robert Deschamps , ‘Better education: we can if we want to’, Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique 2014/2 (Tome LIII), pages 39–55, https://www.cairn.info/revue-reflets-et-perspectives-de-la-vie-economique-2014-2-page-39.htm
[15] https://www.lacsc.be/vos-droits/travailler-dans-lenseignement/fin-de-carriere/dppr
[16] Liège Court of Appeal confirms conviction of 17 FGTB activists for blocking the E40', RTBF, https://www.rtbf.be/article/la-cour-d-appel-de-liege-confirme-la-condamnation-des-17-militants-fgtb-pour-le-blocage-de-le40-10862976
[17] https://www.lalibre.be/culture/medias-tele/2013/04/24/qui-est-le-journaliste-belge-pour-qui-vote-t-il-OHVMR7Z43BG3RFAA4QQ3NUCB6Q/
[18] Le Soir, 19 May 2022.
[19] https://www.moustique.be/actu/2019/03/29/la-majorite-des-enseignants-votent-gauche-est-ce-un-probleme-176631
[20] https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15916/coronavirus-belgium-carnage
[21] https://www.rtbf.be/article/qui-etait-autour-de-la-table-du-comite-de-concertation-coronavirus-de-ce-vendredi-notre-infographie-10609975
[22] https://www.ln24.be/2022-05-23/lendettement-wallon-est-stoppe-et-meme-diminue
[23] In fact, the 2022 budget, which had a yawning deficit, had been revised into a worse deficit than expected (a so-called ‘budget conclave’). It was this ‘conclave’ revision that was, in turn, revised. The headline that ‘debt is being reduced’ is of course false, because a forecast of a worsening deficit does not reduce the debt.
[24] Walloon Budget 2022: a responsible budgetary trajectory’ (sic), https://borsus.wallonie.be/home/communiques-de-presse/communiques-de-presse/presses/budget-wallon-2022--une-trajectoire-budgetaire-responsable-et-solidaire.html
[25] https://www.lecho.be/economie-politique/belgique/wallonie/la-wallonie-est-elle-au-bord-de-la-faillite/10352831.html
[26] https://www.lecho.be/economie-politique/belgique/wallonie/la-wallonie-est-elle-au-bord-de-la-faillite/10352831.html
[27] ‘Public Debt Wallonia-Brussels Federation / French Community of Belgium, Annual Report 2020’, http://www.budget-finances.cfwb.be/index.php?eID=tx_nawsecuredl&u=0&g=0&hash=6c392353a30a9506db297a19d941de6ba76715e4&file=fileadmin/sites/dgbf/upload/dgbf_super_editor/dgbf_editor/Service_general_des_Finances/service_de_la_dette/documents/Annual_Reports/Debt_2020_FR_DEF.pdf
[28] WALLONIA’S RECOVERY PLAN, https://www.wallonie.be/sites/default/files/2022-03/De%CC%81claration%20commune%20sur%20les%20priorite%CC%81s%20du%20Plan%20de%20relance%20wallon.pdf
[29] Catch up and pass, said Stalin.
[30] One hundred million dead.
[31] By ‘reform’ is meant here the reform that would bring the expenditure in Wallonia in line with its revenues. This is what will not happen by the ‘internal’ route. What will happen, however, with certainty, is a new (seventh!) Belgian institutional reform. For the Flemings are still asking for additional competences, and the Walloons for the renewal of the ‘transfers’.
[32] Walloon Left debate on 27 April 2022, https://twitter.com/_revuepolitique/status/1519363172787970049; the reduction of the ‘merchant’ to the smallest possible portion should begin, if we are to believe the Walloon socialist, with the abolition of e-commerce: https://trends.levif.be/economie/politique-economique/paul-magnette-veut-faire-de-la-belgique-un-pays-sans-e-commerce-les-liberaux-contre-attaquent/article-news-1522621.html?cookie_check=1653315001
[33] https://portsetcorridors.com/2022/anvers-bruges-naissance-dun-geant-portuaire-europeen/
